COP29 in Baku: What to expect from 2024’s high-stakes climate summit
The upcoming COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, is already making waves, but not just for the ambitious climate discussions on the agenda. Here’s how and why it’s set to stand out from past conferences.
The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), running from 11 to 22 November, will be hosted by Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, and is expected to see a few marked differences from previous COPs.
Partly due to its location, it’s expected that there will be far fewer attendees than last year’s COP28 in Dubai — fewer than 50,000 compared to Dubai’s 100,000, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
This year’s pared-down event is attributed to the city’s limited infrastructure for major gatherings, as well as its relatively late confirmation as host, plus a restrained private-sector presence, compounded by Azerbaijan’s controversial status as a major fossil fuel producer. As a result, we’ll see a scaled-back but arguably more focused climate summit.
Controversies surrounding the host nation
Many are questioning the credibility of a summit hosted by a nation that has built much of its economy on oil and gas production. Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily fuelled by oil, and the country is set to increase its gas production by a third, from 37 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2024 to 49 bcm in 2033, according to data from Rystad.
But it’s not just environmental groups taking issue — organisations like Human Rights Watch and PEN International argue that Azerbaijan’s human rights record casts a shadow over the nation’s leadership, citing arrests of journalists, suppression of civil society, and restricted freedoms that activists worry could influence how the conference unfolds.
A coalition of NGOs is calling for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to set stricter human rights benchmarks for COP hosts.COP29 has however gained positive attention for its increased Global South representation. The UN is allocating more badges to NGOs from the region to spotlight nations most affected by climate change; marking a strategic shift in participant representation. It’s a significant move that’s been widely applauded by climate activists for its aim to amplify voices from regions most affected by climate change, and rebalance the historically uneven representation at these conferences.
What key topics will be covered at COP29?
Topics of this year’s conference are expected to focus on advancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, securing new climate financing, and building resilience in climate-vulnerable areas.
Climate financing will be a major part of the agenda, similar to COP28 — particularly as countries from the Global South, including Small Island Developing States, demand greater resources to help them adapt to climate impacts.
The Global South refers to regions in Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East that are often economically disadvantaged and face higher vulnerability to climate change.
Countries most vulnerable to climate change continue to call for loss and damage funding — a mechanism formally adopted at COP27 but still seeking concrete pathways and funding commitments. At COP29, developing countries will likely press for the fulfilment of this funding, which they see as essential for resilience against worsening climate impacts.
The energy transition will also be a central discussion, particularly given Azerbaijan’s position as a major fossil fuel producer. Conversations around renewable energy expansion, green innovation, and economic diversification away from fossil fuels are anticipated to dominate the agenda.
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How important is the timing of this COP?
The timing of COP29 holds particular weight, taking place just before the February 2025 deadline for updating Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which requires countries to submit enhanced emissions reduction plans.
According to Climate Action Tracker, current global commitments place the planet on course for a 2.6 to 3.1 degree celcius rise by 2100, far overshooting the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degree celcius.
Experts, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warn that unless COP29 prompts meaningful new commitments, we risk intensifying global disasters due to unchecked warming.
Baku is located on the southern shore of the Caspian Sea, one of the biggest enclosed seas of the world’s entire surface. The city is the lowest national capital in the world, sitting 28 metres below sea level.
Shifting the narrative of oil-dependent economies
Azerbaijan is making moves to counter scepticism. The nation has announced its ‘Green World Solidarity Year’ for 2024, accompanied by plans to reduce emissions by 35 per cent by 2030 and establish a ‘Net-Zero Emission Zone’ in the Karabakh region, showcasing its commitment to sustainable development despite its fossil-fuel background.
One silver lining, as noted by Alice Hill, Senior Fellow at CFR, is that Azerbaijan’s hosting could shift the narrative to include the realities and challenges faced by oil-dependent economies in the climate transition. Their leadership could serve as an example to other fossil fuel-reliant nations of how they, too, can navigate a just energy transition amid complex dependencies.
A more streamlined summit
The reduced attendance and intensified spotlight on the host nation’s commitments are likely to bring a different atmosphere to COP29. The streamlined summit may foster more substantive, solutions-focused dialogues that balance the immediate needs of high-emitting countries with the urgent climate adaptation demands of vulnerable nations.
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