Aviation Carbon Event’s Christopher Surgenor shares his insights into the aviation industry’s transition to a more sustainable future and the emerging technologies driving this change.
Christopher Surgenor serves as the Programme Director for Aviation Carbon Events and is the Editor and Publisher of GreenAir News. A key figure in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact of aviation, Christopher’s work centres on promoting viable solutions to reduce the sector’s carbon footprint. He is deeply engaged in topics like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), carbon markets, and the long-term decarbonisation of the aviation industry.
Through his leadership at events like the Aviation Carbon conference, Christopher brings together global experts to address aviation’s most pressing climate challenges. His contributions have been pivotal in advancing discussions on how the industry can meet its emissions targets and transition toward a more sustainable future.
In the lead-up to this year’s Aviation Carbon conference on November 25-26, Christopher offers his perspective on the rapidly shifting aviation landscape.
The aviation industry has set ambitious targets for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. What do you see as the most practical steps that are being taken to work towards this goal?
A key element of the aviation industry’s net zero target is that governments — through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) — have committed to the same ambitious goal. Aligning government and industry efforts is crucial, as robust policy measures will be essential to support the development of new clean energy sources, particularly sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is expected to play a central role in reducing emissions.
What are the biggest challenges to scaling SAF production and achieving net-zero emissions?
Achieving these goals will demand the construction of hundreds of SAF production facilities worldwide, at a cost running into trillions of dollars. For this to happen, governments will need to implement significant incentives to attract the necessary investment. Furthermore, the aviation industry must convince policymakers, investors, and fuel producers that it should be prioritised over other transport sectors in the competition for limited low-carbon fuel resources.
Heavy investment and technology advances will also be required to accelerate fuel efficiency improvement of commercial airliners and aircraft engines, and airspace operations will need reforming to make flight routings more efficient.
The uptake of SAF and other technology and operational improvements won’t be enough to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. Under all scenarios, there will remain so-called residual emissions that the industry will need to deal with to hit the target, if it continues to grow at its historic pace.
These emissions will have to be paid for by industry through carbon removals, high-quality carbon offsets and emissions trading. The industry will have to prepare for a high carbon price resulting from others also looking to decarbonise, and balance the cost and viability of reducing in-sector emissions with that by out-of-sector means.
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SAF and green hydrogen are often cited as key to reducing aviation’s environmental impact. How close are we to these technologies becoming mainstream?
Global SAF production is still very low, despite over a decade in development, and SAF consumption is just a fraction of 1 percent of total jet fuel used by airlines. In 2024, according to industry body IATA, SAF production is expected to triple compared to the previous year, to 1.9 billion litres, accounting for 0.53 percent of aviation’s fuel need.
SAF is expected to contribute over 60 percent towards emissions reductions by 2050 for the sector to reach net zero, so a huge and speedy ramp-up in SAF production is required. A lack of government policy and investor confidence to date has held up development, along with technical barriers to commercial-scale production. A reluctance by the major oil companies to commit to SAF have also held back progress. Another barrier is the cost of SAF compared with conventional jet fuel, with airlines unwilling or unable to pay the high premium.
Green hydrogen will be a requisite for producing the next generation of clean aviation fuels — known as e-fuels or eSAF — which will provide even better reductions in lifecycle emissions. These don’t come with the feedstock concerns of current generation SAF, but are still very much in their infancy. Governments are looking to prioritise these fuels over the long-term.
Hydrogen-powered aircraft, on the other hand, are still at least a decade away and even then will only be used as small regional aircraft, so won’t contribute meaningfully to the net zero by 2050 target.
How are governments and international bodies shaping aviation policies, as a response to increasing pressure to reduce emissions?
Both the EU and UK are introducing blending mandates from 2025 to ensure that all jet fuel supplied at European airports contains a percentage of SAF, with the percentage increasing over time. A separate mandate applies to e-fuels. The responsibility falls on fuel producers to meet the mandates, although the cost of compliance will fall on airlines.
To help would-be SAF producers, the UK government is planning to introduce a mechanism that guarantees them pricing stability for their fuel that helps bridge the cost premium. The EU has introduced an incentive to airlines to use SAF through its emissions trading system (EU ETS) that airlines flying within the EU have to comply with.
In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act introduced by the Biden administration provides tax incentives to SAF producers and is proving to have helped stimulate SAF startups.
Internationally, at a meeting convened by ICAO in late 2023, governments agreed a global framework to promote SAF production worldwide used in international air transport to be 5 percent less carbon intensive by 2030, which would require around 17.5 billion litres of SAF to be produced.
How will the upcoming conference Aviation Carbon 2024 help provide guidance on the latest policy updates?
Aviation Carbon first started in 2012, when aviation was to be included in the EU’s flagship carbon emissions regulation tool, the EU ETS, so policy has been a strong feature of the conference ever since and many airlines and aircraft operators attend to hear and understand latest developments. As previously mentioned, EU and UK SAF blending mandates start on January 1st and will have a considerable impact on airlines flying in Europe.
Changes have recently taken place to regulations applying the EU ETS and UK ETS. Another important development is the introduction by the EU from next year concerning the monitoring, reporting and verification of non-CO2 emissions from flights within Europe, which has proved controversial. Aviation Carbon 2024 will be covering these policies in full, with officials from the EU and UK in attendance to explain the regulations. It’s a rare opportunity for airlines to ask questions.
What do you see as the most significant economic trends impacting aviation in 2024-5?- and how are airlines adjusting to the current financial landscape?
Global air traffic is likely to return to — or even exceed — pre-Covid levels either this year or next; the airline industry is largely now in good health. However, it’s an industry notoriously susceptible to economic and geopolitical events, particularly regarding the price of oil, so good times now doesn’t mean good times ahead. The industry will increasingly have to factor in the cost of decarbonisation, which is going to be much higher in the years ahead.
We are seeing significant advances in aircraft design. What new technologies or innovations do you believe will have the most profound impact on the future of aviation over the next decade?
Many new aircraft entering service today are likely to be still in operation in 2050. Although there will be incremental gains in fuel efficiency from technology advances in aircraft and engine designs, there are no ‘clean sheet’ aircraft in the pipeline at either of the two major aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing. Therefore, the traditional tube-and-wing design we see today will remain the same for decades to come, although there are smaller companies working on blended-wing concept aircraft that could revolutionise air travel over time.
Which innovations are you most excited by personally, both in terms of sustainability and customer experience?
Because of the scarcity of SAF, its availability is limited to a very few airports. It means most airlines and operators are not in a position to buy or use it in their aircraft, which in itself is holding back SAF development. We are now seeing the introduction of ‘book-and-claim’ programmes in which the environmental attributes of the SAF can be purchased by both airlines and corporates or even individuals, who are looking to reduce their travel carbon footprint. This in turn can help fund the production of more SAF.
Market-based measures like carbon offsetting and emissions trading are gaining traction in aviation’s decarbonisation strategy. How do you see carbon markets evolving in aviation?
For years, market-based measures (MBMs) have been a central focus of discussions between the aviation industry and policymakers due to the challenges of reducing the sector’s carbon footprint through technological advancements alone.
The UK ETS, EU ETS and ICAO’s international carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA are MBMs and have been controversial since they were first proposed. The EU ETS was the first to be introduced in 2012 and caused a political international outcry as it was intended originally to include all airlines flying in and out of Europe, and had to be scaled back.
CORSIA is meant to be the only MBM applying to aviation but is considered by many to be insufficient in curbing the sector’s emissions growth. The carbon markets have had to adapt accordingly to the changes and aviation is now more wary over carbon offsets after bad publicity concerning offsetting.
There is now growing interest in carbon removal credits, and although these are much more expensive than offsets, they’re seen to have greater integrity. Carbon removals is a subject that will be covered in depth at Aviation Carbon 2024.
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